BIKE: Thoughts on Near Peak Oil

[alan_drake]

> I'm confused about this.  Maybe I missed something that is in the 
surrounding context, but can China really pay with exports, while their 
number one buyer - the US - is experiencing some kind of economic 
hemmorage?  Does Chinese economic growth (and thus demand capacity) depend on them finding more market options (beyond the US) for their exports?

The Chinese are aggressively seeking new markets, especially oil exporting ones.  Yes, having your #1 customer get behind on his bills and have to cut back on his standard of living "hurts business".  It will definitely slow Chinese growth, but IMHO, not stop it.  We will never stop all Chinese imports into the US, just cut back dramatically.

They are to the point where internal growth can begin to take over, again IMHO.  Remember that they can import substitute most goods and their need for oil is less than ours.  And they can grow, *IF* they chose, in ways that minimize oil demand growth.  Last year the new premier made a speech to that effect.

> I know, I'm simplifying, and speculating ... I'm just a concerned 
ecologically sensitive father-to-be wondering when then end will come, and what can be done about it.

I also "do what I can".  I am working hard to expand our streetcar system in New Orleans as one example.  Posting here & elsewhere is another.  I relie on the power of a good idea & rational analysis.

Many small efforts can change things, IMHO.  Just look for leverage points.  Having Austin/LCRA get into pumped storage would be a major step forward in wind economics as one example.  Without this, wind is limited to a few % in Texas IMHO.

On a persoanl note, I also have some excellent ties to Iceland, the only nation with a glut of renewable energy.  I can get a visa & job there if need be (although I can read Icelandic, my tongue is *NOT* well adapted !)

Alan