BIKE: Transportation is changing to favor alternatives

[Roger Baker]

[Loads of good transpo info in this PDF file. Incidently it should also 
be noted that federal money proposed for roads in the new upgraded 
version of the Tea-21 law will not increase. As you may know, TxDOT is 
trying to overcome this growing gap through deficit financing using 
toll roads -- which automatically creates billions in special interest 
money dedicated to preserving our car-centric transportation mode. -- 
Roger]


From: Todd Alexander Litman <litman>
Date: January 20, 2005 7:47:15 AM CST
To: litman
Subject: The Future Isn’t What It Used To Be - News  Release



For Immediate Release: 20 January 2005
For more information: Todd Litman, <litman>.


"The Future Isn't What It Used To Be: Changing Trends And Their 
Implications For Transport Planning," by Todd Litman, Victoria 
Transport Policy Institute        <http://www.vtpi.org/future.pdf>

New report indicates increasing importance of transportation system 
diversity.

Abstract
This report examines demographic, economic and market trends that 
affect travel demand, and their implications for transport planning. 
Motorized mobility grew tremendously during the Twentieth Century due 
to favorable demographic and economic conditions. But the factors that 
caused this growth are unlikely to continue. Per capita vehicle 
ownership and mileage have started to decline, while demand for 
alternatives such as walking, cycling, public transit and telework is 
increasing. This indicates that future transport demand will be 
increasingly diverse. Transport planning can reflect these shifts by 
increasing support for alternative modes.


Study Conclusions

Between 1900 and 2000 per capita vehicle travel increased by an order 
of magnitude due to favorable technical, demographic and economic 
trends. However, this study indicates that these trends are beginning 
to change. Toward the end of the Century per capita automobile travel 
stopped growing in the U.S., and started to decline after 2000. This 
decline is likely to continue due to factors discussed in this report.

An increasing portion of the population will need or prefer to rely on 
alternative modes such as walking, cycling, ridesharing, public 
transit, telework and delivery services. Automobile transport will 
continue to be important, but the role of other modes will increase.

Transportation professionals should take these trends into account when 
making strategic decisions. We should plan for a mature transport 
system, with less emphasis on roadway system expansion and more 
emphasis on improving transport system efficiency and diversity.

For example, if we start developing a new suburban highway now, it will 
be completed about the time that most Baby Boomers retire, fuel prices 
rise significantly, and consumers increasingly value walkable 
neighborhoods. It may be better to anticipate these trends by investing 
resources in alternative modes and creating less automobile-dependent 
communities.

Although this paper investigates transport patterns in wealthier, 
developed countries, the analysis has important implications for 
lower-income, developing countries.



Sincerely,
Todd Litman, Director
Victoria Transport Policy Institute
"Efficiency - Equity - Clarity"
1250 Rudlin Street
Victoria, BC, V8V 3R7, Canada
Phone & Fax: 250-360-1560
Email: litman
Website: http://www.vtpi.org
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