BIKE: Re: Energy update

[rcbaker]

On 2 Dec 2003 at 20:07, Scott Kurland wrote:


> 
> The methane ice fields in the Gulf of Mexico contain more fuel than
> half a dozen Saudi Arabias.  Running out of fuel is a non-problem.  If
> you look at the cost of fuel in terms of percentage of income, it's
> dropping.
> 
> I like the solar power satellites/microwave transmission and ocean
> thermal engine models, myself, but running out of fuel just isn't
> going to happen.
> 

To take the first point last, you make the common mistake of equating 
the liklihood of a sharp rise in price with "running out". We will only run 
out of cheap oil, but the economics of oil guarantees that when world  
production peaks, the price will then rise sharply.  

Second the current price of oil is a poor predictor of price in the future, 
because price depends on factors like the decisions of OPEC, and their 
true reserve situation. Much of the data is poor. Better to listen to the 
petroleum geologists like Campbell who understand the reserves and 
their depletion characteristics best.

Finally to say that there are huge underwater methane hydrate reserves 
is meaningless, because nobody has been able to figure out an 
economical way to harvest what generally occurs as a thin layer of solid 
on the ocean floor. If underwater methane is really a promising source 
of energy in your opinion, then why don't you back it up by posting to 
this list an internet link describing exactly where underwater methane 
hydrate is being harvested economically, and by whom.  

-- Roger