risk odds

ch3ster · 2013-09-21 15:06:41

If anyone can help settle an argument:
What are the risk odds of death or injury of a bicyclist
vs those of a car driver?

MichaelBluejay · 2013-09-21 15:50:44

See my Bicycle Safety Almanac page, in the "Cycling Risk and Deaths" section. Short summary: On a per-mile basis, I figure that U.S. cyclists are 3x to 10x more likely to die than motorists. The risk is higher if the cyclist is riding the wrong way.

dougmc · 2013-09-23 23:40:23

Of course, if you're looking to make cycling look safer, you can use per-hour figures like Ken Kifer did. (I say did, because he was killed by a drunk driver while on his bicycle.)

Unfortunately, comparing cycling to driving is sort of an apples to oranges thing, and clear answers aren't always available. Also note that deaths are tracked far more reliably than injuries are, and so statistics given tend to cover deaths and ignore injuries just because of that.

You didn't say which position you took, but either way ... you shouldn't have much difficulty finding statistics that show you were right.

(All that said, I think that bicycling is somewhat more likely to kill you than driving on a per-mile basis (which is the proper way to look at things -- after all, you don't ride to work 'by hour' -- you ride until you've gone enough miles to arrive) with exactly what "somewhat" means depending on exactly which bicycling miles estimate you use.

And I think that the ratio of injuries to deaths is even higher for bicycles than cars, simply because the safety equipment in cars tends to keep you from being injured at all in all but the most serious collisions, where even a minor bicycle collision or fall tends to result in an injury.

rich00 · 2013-10-11 10:52:49

Bicyclist skill, equipment (lighting, colors, condition of bike), where they ride, at what time, among other attributes will highly affect their odds of being involved in collisions.

I myself, have been in many instances where if I wasn't as skilled and experienced as I am, I would have been hit.

Considering how many people on bikes that use poor judgment, have no lights at night - it is no surprise to me the stats are what they are.

If you screw up while driving a car, you've got a lot better chance of walking away than on a bike.

MichaelBluejay · 2013-10-11 11:53:58

Being a skilled cyclist definitely helps, but you can't avoid every collision. I definitely feel that I'm more at risk while bicycling than while riding in a car. On a bike I have the combination of being more likely to be hit (harder to see, drivers not trying to avoid me as much because my vehicle is no threat to them), and more likely to be injured if I do get hit (no steel cage protecting me). Why *wouldn't* bicycling be more dangerous than driving?

rich00 · 2013-10-13 17:25:04

One instance may be if your bike route has you on separated paved bike trails where you don't have to interact with cars at all.

Sure, you could crash on your own, but again, that is mostly a result of rider experience/skill/judgement.

But health wise, I read that cycling, even on roads will increase your life expectancy due to better health than a typical driver.

MichaelBluejay · 2013-10-13 20:13:11

rich00 wrote:

But health wise, I read that cycling, even on roads will increase your life expectancy due to better health than a typical driver.

That's just the propaganda that cyclists are fond of repeating. The truth is that research was done in *Europe*, where it's far safer to bike than here. Doesn't hold up in the U.S. I touch on this on the Bicycle Safety Almanac that I linked to in my first post.

flatau · 2013-10-23 19:50:37

An interesting article (well actually a blog post) from the New York Times on bicycle safety: http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/2 … rd-to-say/. It is mostly about crashes not involving cars.

Bicycle Austin forum

#1 2013-09-21 15:06:41

risk odds

#2 2013-09-21 15:50:44

Re: risk odds

#3 2013-09-23 23:40:23

Re: risk odds

#4 2013-10-11 10:52:49

Re: risk odds

#5 2013-10-11 11:53:58

Re: risk odds

#6 2013-10-13 17:25:04

Re: risk odds

#7 2013-10-13 20:13:11

Re: risk odds

#8 2013-10-23 19:50:37

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