BIKE: Some views of Wind Economics

[alan_drake]

> Alan:
 
> Thanks for the enlightening post..., very interesting.
 
> How soon should we be seeing off-shore wind turbines on the gulf?, plus more dotting the landscapes of west Texas, the Dakotas, Sierra Nevada and MN's Buffalo Ridge?
 
> eric

A more complex answer than you might expect.

I have heard that a "Wind Rush" would occur in Texas once investors could be assured of long term (20 years) natural gas prices of $8/thousand cuft or million BTUS (almost =).  Latest prices are $6.50.

There are lots of wind prospects where NG powerplants could be throttled back and wind electricity valued at just it's energy value (no value for capacity).

Electricity is valued in two ways; energy & capacity (including spinning reserve).  Energy is the sctual electricity, when and where delivered.  Capacity is the promise to be there upon demand (people & industry do not like unreliable power; although some industry gets VERY cheap interruptable power).  Most capacity requires XX hours to become available.  Spinning reserve is power that can be online in seconds (and has a fairly high cost associated with it).  Run a power plant at 50% and the other half is spinning reserve.

North Texas & South Texas (ERCOT) each have seperate spinning reserves (although they can borrow from each other).  The size of spinning reserve is equal to the largest plant online in each area (STNP for South Texas, Comanche Peak for North Texas).  That is a LOT of power to keep ready, and it costs.

So far, wind gets zero capacity since it cannot be guaranteed.  This is an economic loss that raises wind economic breakeven points.

The DC Loop around North America could give some small value for capacity (as opposed to energy) for wind.  For example, Florida Power ( a major wind player) could guarantee SOME small amount of power from at least one of it's wind farms in Washington/Oregon, California, Texas, New York or Alberta.  This capacity value adds to the economics of wind.  The other strategy is a combination of pumped storage (or variable hydro) and wind.

Pumped air (as opposed to pumped water) might be better for Texas.

I would like to see Austin and/or LCRA lead a drive to develop a pumped storage unit that could be shared (sold off OR rented in fractions) to various wind developers and used internally.  Ship their low value 3 AM energy only power to pumped storage and then (minus ~25% losses) sell spinning reserve all morning & afternoon till 4 PM and then sell it as energy AND guaranteed capacity during peak demand.  I hope this make sense.

Several pumped storage projects are underway in Germany as the % of wind approachs 8%.  I see pumped storage as essential to large (more than say 2% ?) wind generation in Texas.

I have had a personal 1:1 tour of a 2,000 MW TVA pumped storage unit near Chattanooga.  I may attend the Hydro conference in Austin this July.

More on my views of wind economics when I have time.  ATM, I am getting ready for a Light Rail engineering mini-course at Portland State University.

Alan