BIKE: My view of Gov't R&D and my "40 Year Rule" for new technologies

[alan_drake]

 .S. spending on renewables is twice the level in Europe

http://www.sparksdata.co.uk/refocus/redesign/showdoc.asp?docid=44216555&accnum=1

The above article looks at relative spending on various renewable
categories (wind, solar, geothermal, etc.) in Europe and the U.S. 

The U.S. is kicking Europe's Ass.  The Europeans will pay for Kyoto,
the U.S. will provide the means for Kyoto.

Michael Dewolf
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The fallacy of this is the concept that Gov't R&D research will do any good, and the good will be proportionate to the $ or € spent.

Let me point to the largest renewable success story (outisde hydro), wind turbines.  The Danes dominate the business and everyone else builds copies of their design (3 blade upwind).

Did the Danish Gov't outspend the combined resources of everyone else in the world on R&D for wind turbines ?  NO !!

They spent almost nothing on R&D.  The various small companies (now large) did ALL of the R&D.  *All* of the Gov't R&D from EVERYONE was wasted money.  Virtually none of it found it's way into the current 600 kW to 5 MW Danish wind turbines.

Then how did the Danes do it ?

Two major factors.

The Danish Gov't set up and published a data base on the performance of the various wind turbine makers.  The good ones got more orders, the bad ones didn't.

The Danes also enacted a carbon tax which made wind energy more competitive, along with other tax breaks (no property tax, investment tax credits, etc.).  Many co-ops (say a half dozen farmers) bought and operated many of the wind turbines. This made siting them much easier when, with every turn of the blade, one sees an extra 1/10 kronur in one's pocket.

Denmark is approaching 25% of their electricity from wind.
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Also, despite what Bush says, the answer is not "technology".  Faith 
that some magic bullet will appear and save the day.  (He also says that the path to energy independence is by dramatically increasing LNG imports !  Yes, in his press conference, I almost fell out of my chair !).

Every French city & town that "voted correctly" of 250,000 or more is 
getting a new tram system. (Streetcar/Light Rail).  Said system runs off  of French nuke + hydro (~90% of their electricity).  High taxes keep cars energy efficient.  No new technology, just applying what is already known.

Apply what is known to the US, and I could see our oil consumption drop by half.

Alan

PS: In my engineering opinion, fuel cells for auto use will never be practical and economic.  Waste of $ and false hope.  Fuels cells were used on Gemini spacecraft in mid 1960s.  No other successful technology has taken much more than 40 years from "discovery" to practical application.

Karl Benz invented auto > Model T
Crick er al discovered double helix of DNA > GMO crops
E=Mc2 > Hiroshima
Wright Bros. > DC-3

And today our tools for design are MUCH better.  The time from discovery to application should be much shorter today.  Yet, the fuel cell is still "decades away".  IMHO, never.  Same for photovoltaics.




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