BIKE: Nation of junkies in denial; update

[Roger Baker]

"... Globally, there is a critical shortage of heavy-duty truck tires  
-- the kind that go on dump trucks and bulldozers -- because  
construction companies putting up skyscrapers and other buildings in  
China have overwhelmed the market with demand for those vehicles.  
Companies such as Volvo and Caterpillar, as a result, temporarily are  
delivering those trucks without tires, and then shipping the tires to  
customers as more tires become available..."

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<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/04/29/ 
AR2005042901227.html>


CAR CULTURE
Exploding Overseas Demand Ends Era of Cheap Oil

By Warren Brown
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, May 1, 2005; Page N02



When it comes to discussing gasoline prices, President Bush is a lot  
like the doctor who refuses to give a terminally ill patient the bad  
news. To wit: "The end is here."

Instead, like his reluctant counterpart in the medical profession,  
the president prefers speaking in euphemisms, offering palliatives,  
extending hope that the inevitable is somehow not so inevitable after  
all. The president did a lot of that Thursday night in his nationally  
televised address on his administration's Social Security and energy  
policies.

Inasmuch as I expect to be working until the day I die, I'll simply  
ignore, for the moment, anything the president or anyone else has to  
say about Social Security. But I care greatly about how my wages will  
be spent, especially in acquisition of fuel needed to do the work I  
love. And that is what bothers me about President Bush and numerous  
other politicians, Republicans and Democrats, on the matter of rising  
gasoline prices.

They just don't get it; or if they do get it, they are not at all  
willing to have a frank discussion of their understanding with the  
American people.

So, here's the deal, America: Your days of living with the developed  
world's cheapest gasoline prices are over. They probably never will  
return. The rest of the world is developing; and it needs fuel, too.

You want examples? By 2014, according to global auto industry  
estimates, North America will be the second-largest growing car  
market behind China. Europe will be a very distant also-ran. An  
estimated 57 percent of the global automotive market's growth will  
occur in the Asia-Pacific region alone between now and 2014,  
according to industry estimates.

That means people in China, Malaysia, India and Korea are beginning  
to drive; and that means they are driving from somewhere to somewhere  
-- to new housing developments and shopping centers in Shanghai, to  
new middle-class communities in India; and that all means new roads,  
buildings, more energy to build roads, buildings and transit systems.  
It means new industries in new factories producing more products for  
the new middle class to buy at new shopping centers with new parking  
lots.

Are you getting any of this?

"Even we know that the oil isn't going to last forever," said Bakur  
A. Azher, publisher and editor-in-chief of Azher Information  
Technology Group Ltd., a magazine and print holding company in the  
United Arab Emirates.

"We're preparing our economy for the day when oil will not be our  
main source of revenue," Azher said in a recent Shanghai discussion.  
"Look around you. Demand for oil is growing exponentially. It's not  
going to last forever," he said.

How does that square with President Bush's Thursday night pledge that  
his administration "is doing everything we can to make gasoline more  
affordable"? Exactly how does the president intend to do that? By  
holding hands with the crown prince of Saudi Arabia on the  
presidential ranch in Crawford, Tex.? By wringing his hands over  
suspect allegations that petroleum companies are gouging consumers at  
the pump?

"Here at home, we'll protect consumers," the president said. "There  
will be no price gouging at gas pumps in America." But, he said, "we  
must address the root causes that are driving up gas prices." That's  
interesting, inasmuch as the roots are global and are growing  
rapidly. You want another example?

Globally, there is a critical shortage of heavy-duty truck tires --  
the kind that go on dump trucks and bulldozers -- because  
construction companies putting up skyscrapers and other buildings in  
China have overwhelmed the market with demand for those vehicles.  
Companies such as Volvo and Caterpillar, as a result, temporarily are  
delivering those trucks without tires, and then shipping the tires to  
customers as more tires become available.

It takes lots of petroleum to make those tires, each of which can  
weigh hundreds of pounds, and it takes lots of fuel to ship them and  
run the machines that use them.

The bottom line is that we are looking at a future of less oil and  
higher oil prices. That means more pain at the pump for everybody. It  
also means the federal government needs to get serious about  
exploring and developing alternative fuel sources; and it means some  
very spoiled Americans are going to have to grow up, shape up, and  
accept the reality that we can't use all of the gasoline we want  
without paying more for it -- one way or another.

And, no, Mr. President, it does not mean we are going to be able to  
drill our way to energy self-sufficiency by plundering the Arctic  
National Wildlife Refuge in America. That's the equivalent of  
offering an aspirin as a cure for cancer. It's "root causes" we are  
supposed to be concerned about, remember? Perhaps it's time to  
consider using another resource, and using it more wisely than the  
one we're about to exhaust.