BIKE: Why bike riders should be concerned

[Roger Baker]

Today oil prices rose above $56 dollars a barrel, an all time historic 
high.

Some like Mike Dahmus may argue that until it goes above the highest 
peak of the 1980's adjusted for inflation, said to be about $80 a 
barrel, we don't really have a serious problem. I'll argue otherwise.

Let me connect some dots.  Points that I think tie together high oil 
prices, local transportation policy, and the long range implications of 
such policies for Austin-area bike riders. -- Roger

               ************************************************

First of as some already know, CAMPO is now promoting a $22 billion, 
long range plan that contains a map with lots of future bike routes, to 
be seen on Map 7. (But you better comment VERY fast. The deadline for 
public comment on this huge federally-sanctioned, long range CAMPO plan 
is this Friday!)

You might look at the bike route map in the plan and say great!, just 
look at all the bike stuff we're going to get someday. Even a bike 
route all along IH 35!

This bike map says; "NOTE: 2030 On-road Bicycle System may include 
parallel off-road facilities". This sounds like CAMPO is planning to 
build a separate bikeway on IH 35, (assuming CAMPO planners aren't 
planning for bikes to be mixed in with the cars and trucks on the 
hyper-congested IH 35 of the future).

Just don't be so impolite as  to ask where the money for separate IH 35 
bike lanes will come from. CAMPO's bike map is for someday, if and when 
CAMPO figures out how to get the money or it drops out of the sky or we 
build tolled bike lanes or something.

But CAMPO's roads are positioned for fast approval now; they are what 
is really going to happen in terms of real federal dollars authorized; 
a network of toll roads constituting over half of Austin total highway 
miles, calculated to serve decades worth of hypothetical future 
suburban sprawl.

What about combining biking, congested arterial roads, and road rage? 
First of all CAMPO didn't try to actually calculate the modal split for 
future bike riders; getting a handle on bike trips was not considered 
to be an important CAMPO planning factor because the numbers were 
judged to be insignificant. The argument follows.

We know from page 108 of the CAMPO plan that bike riding work trips 
have apparently plummeted since the year 2000 census from 2% then to a 
current level of 1%, according to CAMPO's public opinion survey. Thus 
likely four years from now, bike riding to work will likely have 
dropped much further, to a miniscule .5%, and so on.

As I see the end result, when you mix fast angry commuter traffic 
anxious to get out to Cedar Park to fix dinner, and mix it with 
stressed out truck drivers and then mix that together with bikes and a 
few stoic peds, you get lots of road rage at the cost of dangerous bike 
and ped conditions. No wonder the bike work trip numbers, as documented 
by CAMPO, are falling so fast.

CAMPO and the road lobby wouldn't actually plan to immerse bikers in 
lots of angry traffic would it? The CAMPO plan computer model 
guarantees it!

The fact is that even if all the $22 billion in the CAMPO plan were 
actually available, including the money for bike stuff, CAMPO's own 
traffic model shows the plan tripling the number of severely congested 
roads! Map-2 of the CAMPO plan shows many arterials in the central 
city, plus lots or suburban roads, with serious congestion (going from 
10% to 29% as seen on page 53 of the plan).

So according to CAMPO's plan, bike riders should brace themselves for 
much worse to come in the form of angry commuter traffic spilling over 
from the toll roads onto local arterials -- roads that the city cannot 
afford to upgrade until the economy starts booming again. As you may 
easily imagine, CAMPO sees the boom resuming soon and lasting for 
decades, thus justifying issuing the bond debt to get the toll roads 
started now --  to accomodate future sprawl growth of near three 
million population in the CAMPO planning area.

                   ****************************************

The only credible silver lining I can see is that the price of oil will 
soar, causing the toll road bonds to default in the next decade, and 
lots of folks will start moving closer in, using bikes, electric bikes, 
and electric motor scooters -- in numbers that CAMPO and the road lobby 
seem unable to comprehend.

TMeanwhile, the same sorts of investors who are thinking about buying 
part of the Brooklyn Bridge might wish to click here:

http://www.BondScam.com


[The following Salon story is by Austin investigative reporter Robert 
Bryce, an ace reporter who is getting known nationally for his books on 
Enron, Bushie politics, etc.  -- Roger]

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2005/03/15/herold/print.html

Running on empty
The leading energy analysts who foretold Enron's demise have an 
alarming new claim: The world's major oil companies are almost tapped 
out.

- - - - - - - - - - - -
By Robert Bryce, Salon.com

March 15, 2005  |  Four years ago, the analysts at John S. Herold Inc. 
were the first to call bullshit on Enron. On Feb. 21, 2001, three 
Herold analysts issued a report that said Enron's profit margins were 
shriveling, the company had too few hard assets, and its stock price 
was way too high. Less than ten months later, Enron filed for 
bankruptcy.


  Today, the analysts at Herold -- a research-only firm that issues 
valuations on several hundred publicly traded energy companies -- are 
making predictions even bolder than their call on Enron. They have 
begun estimating when each of the world's biggest energy companies will 
peak in its ability to produce oil and gas. Herold's work shows that 
the best minds in the energy industry are accepting the reality that 
the globe is reaching (or has already reached) the limit of its own 
ability to produce ever increasing amounts of oil.

  Many analysts have estimated when the earth will reach its peak oil 
production. Others have done estimates on when individual countries 
will hit their peaks. Herold is the first Wall Street firm to predict 
when specific energy companies will hit their peaks.

  Since last fall, Herold has done peak estimates on about two dozen oil 
companies. Herold believes that the French oil company, Total S.A., 
will reach its peak production in 2007. Herold expects 2008 to be 
critical, with Exxon Mobil Corp., ConocoPhillips Co., BP, Royal 
Dutch/Shell Group, and the Italian producer, Eni S.p.A., all hitting 
their peaks. In 2009, Herold expects ChevronTexaco Corp. to peak. In 
Herold's view, each of the world's seven largest publicly traded oil 
companies will begin seeing production declines within the next 48 
months or so..."











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