BIKE: OPEC maximum

[alan_drake]

I have little doubt that the Algerian Minister was referring to currently installed capacity.

Algeria has long term plans to almost double production, as does Libya.
Libya has underpumped with little investment/technology for almost two decades.  Since they turned over their uranium enrichment centrifuges et al to the US (One good side effect of Iraq) they are now open for significant increases in production.

Indonesia is scheduled to add a new field with 150,000 b/day in 2006, thereby offsetting recent declines in production.

Venezula has plans to expand their tar production faster than convential oil production declines.  (Tar is great for asphalt, OK for heavy bunker fuel for ships, some diesel & av fuel and little gasoline).

Future Nigerian production is a function of corruption & conflict.  Shell wrote down their Nigerian reserves NOT because the oil was not in the ground (as many interpreted it), but because they were not planning to spend the $ to develop these reserves.

Kuwait has some minor development possibilities but is near or at their max.

Iraq will produce substantially more once the shooting stops (#2 in world reserves, about #8 in production).  Lightly pumped fields for two decades (Iraq-Iran war then Embargo).

Iran is likely on the downslope of decline and little new investment/technology in the near future.

And the "Big Black Oily Box" of Saudia Arabia claims that they will add almost 2 million b/day in capacity.  How credible is that claim ?  How long will their biggest fields last while being heavily pumped ?

Surely there are many smaller fields yet to be exploited, but they are trivial in the overall scope of their massive reserves.

Remember, OPEC underproduced and underinvested for decades to keep the price up.  They also have most of the largest fields in the world.  Thus, they are in better shape than other world oil producers and are, IMHO, likely to increase their % of total world oil production.

Alan