BIKE: Cold Hard Slap Of Reality On Toll Roads

[Mike Dahmus]

"Its true that the bonds are insured and also have the padding of $66 
million in federal TIFIA loans that take the default hit first. But 
thats still not enough to take away the enormous risk of default due to 
peak oil and soaring fuel prices. Another risk is that the projected 
sprawl growth will not materialize where the CTRMA board has its land 
investments, and which the roads are designed to enhance."

I'm going to break my own rule and respond (sort-of) to Roger, since 
this meme appears to have spread far and wide.

FOLKS: THERE IS ENOUGH TRAFFIC _____TODAY______ to pay off those bonds 
with tolls.

TODAY.

There doesn't have to be ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT out there to provide 
enough traffic to keep these roads full. These corridors have enough 
cars travelling through them RIGHT NOW to fill up 2 or 3 toll lanes in 
the primary direction of travel during rush hour with packed frontage 
roads left over, which is pretty much all they need to shoot for in 
order for them to be an unqualified success financially.

Remember: these toll roads are freeway additions to roads whch, today, 
have very very heavy traffic. These aren't Southwest Parkway analogues. 
The only one which even remotely worries me is US 183 East, and even 
then the airport traffic will probably make up the difference (airport 
travellers are the least likely to care about spending a couple of bucks 
if the free alternative is unreliable).

Ironically, the three 'old' toll roads (US 183A, SH 45N, and SH 130) 
which supposedly are in much better shape are the three LEAST LIKELY to 
generate enough cars to pay off the bonds -- especially SH 130. (SH 45N 
probably will; US 183A MIGHT but might not, I doubt SH 130 ever will).

And finally, remember: the choice in the REAL WORLD was NEVER "toll 
roads vs. no roads". As Patrick finally observed today, the cocoon most 
of you live in in Central Austin is a very different world from the one 
most suburbanites experience, and there's a lot more of them than there 
are of you. All of these roadway expansions would have happened AS FREE 
ROADS, JUST A LITTLE LATER ON.

I don't know about you, but the prospect that Circle C Jerks have to pay 
a toll to drive into the center-city every day is an unqualified GOOD 
THING. Because the alternative was NOT that they don't keep building out 
there (because they and we both know TXDOT's gonna build them freeways 
either way).

- MD