BIKE: Bicycle Organizations Support Commuter Rail

[Roger Baker]

>
> And I want to remind all of you that, while these bike facilities are  
> an unquestionably good thing, it is very unlikely that Capital Metro  
> will build them unless the performance of the starter line is fairly  
> good, and by that I mean it has to be good enough to convince voters  
> to continue to build the system drawn in the long-range plan. The  
> rails-with-trails trail is not going to be part of the starter route;  
> it's going to be built afterwards IF AND ONLY IF the long-range plan  
> continues to be implemented.
>
> Whether or not this starter line is good enough to get us on the path  
> of implementing that long-range plan (which I think is still awful) is  
> a matter of opinion. I think by now you all know I believe the chance  
> that this starter line will match the extremely poor performance of  
> Tri-Rail in South Florida, which it closely resembles in all important  
> aspects, is quite good).
>
> So please vote simply based on whether you think this starter line is  
> going to work. Voting yes in the hopes of getting bike trails is  
> foolish if the plan itself is never going to get to that point. You  
> might in fact be impeding the development of mass transit in our area  
> and not get the bike trails anyways.
>
> Regards,
> Mike Dahmus
> Urban Transportation Commission


Mike Dahmus bases his argument against rail on his consideration that  
the Tri-Rail system in South Florida is a miserable failure.

He points to that new start on existing rail as evidence to argue by  
analogy that Austin's inexpensive commuter rail start will not work  
here, and that rail will be held in the same low regard that it is in  
Florida, and that this failure it will drag down support for biking,  
etc.

Here is the best link I have found on Florida's Tri-Rail system, its  
history, characteristics, funding etc.

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0OQD/is_1_7/ai_113071137

The fact is that service is very new but does carry 12,000 per day now  
(or last Jan.). In fact if you read the linked article, this passenger  
rail's current status looks very promising including having wide  
political support, etc. They know the current situation is not optimum  
because it bypasses high density in the three counties (because not  
many people have prefered to live next to a freight line?). They are  
well aware they need funding for better bus links, unlike Austin, and  
intend to get it.

So all in all, I would say that this is a good passenger rail start for  
a congested corridor in Florida, and we should not try to use it as a  
bad example for what a rail system could accomplish along our highly  
congested 183 corridor here.

In fact, as fuel prices hit the economy harder, there is every reason  
to think that the public  will shift to transit even faster than they  
are now. A good system for Cedar Park and Leander would be a shuttle  
bus to train connection from large parking areas. A good bus link  
system downtown would be timed transfer, IMO.

I think part of the reason that Mike Dahmus is pessimistic about rail,  
even while supporting toll roads, is that he imagines the future will  
look like the past. It is true that many are in denial about our  
societal oil addiction, the nearness of peak oil and the resulting end  
of cheap oil. And how much all that is likely to affect our  
transportation future, and is affecting our economy right now. *

At some point, you have to look at the facts and make a choice between  
highways/sprawl versus rail/compact development modes of development,  
and you have a golden opportunity on Nov. 2.

-- Roger   




* High gasoline prices like we have now and will have more of are  
strongly deflationary whereas they transfer our wealth to the Saudis.

When corrected for inflation, we are only about $10 below the peak  
price paid by the public for oil in the energy crisis of the early  
1980's, which translates into about $65 a barrel today:

http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/ 
Historical_Oil_Prices_Chart.asp

We are likely to now experience recession and oil driven cost-push  
inflation at the same time. This was termed stagflation in the energy  
crisis of the 1970's. Since 60% of our oil is now imported, and since  
we are running huge $2 billion/month trade deficits, and since we don't  
manufacture much stuff the Chinese want to buy anymore, the world is  
beginning to reject dollars, causing the price of imported oil to rise  
further and the world to avoid dollars even more, etc.

I think anyone should be able to see we have the makings of a vicious  
cycle here, and that the solution isn't to reject rail, which by its  
nature favors energy-efficient development.