BIKE: No more cheap oil -- local implications

[Patrick Goetz]

Joe Moore wrote:
>
> This sounds like a pipe dream to me.
> 
> You better get up to speed on the current business models that the larger
> semiconductor corporations are using.  Outsource, outsource, oursource!
> Modules and sub-components are purchased from all around the world and
> shipped to staged asssembly areas where it is most cost effective to do
> business. (most likely NOT Austin)  These types of companies are only
> retaining; Corporate functions, R&D, Marketing, Sales, Customer Service, and
> Field Service functions (30-40% of the size of a traditional manufacturing
> business infastructure).  The rest of the business is farmed out to approved
> sub contractors!
> 

I was only using semiconductor and computer companies as an example 
because that's what we have around here already; the general principle 
applies regardless:  we need a better, more efficient transportation 
infrastructure in order to be economically competitive.  Corporate 
functions, assembly facilities, and subcontractors are commercial 
entities that employ people and need ways for these people to get to 
work with a minimum amount of hassle.  Sure, having a Metro won't solve 
the problem of outsourcing to cheap labor markets, but it will certainly 
make Austin one of the most attractive cities in the US for setting up a 
business location and will allow us to compete with (high salary) 
European and more developed Asian cities which already have a 
sophisticated transportation infrastructure.

Given our current absolute dependence on automobiles for transportation, 
our economic competitiveness is inversely proportional to the price of 
gasoline, which -- as surely must be obvious to everyone at this point 
-- is mostly going to be increasing from now on.  Is it possible that 
someone will discover that worm dung can be used to make hydrogen fuel 
cells, resulting in a super cheap way to continue to maintain the 
car-culture? Sure, but are you willing to bet the ranch that this is 
going to happen, particularly given the complete lack of any evidence 
suggesting that it will (not to mention the small problem of the laws of 
thermodynamics)?

There is absolutely nothing conservative about our current regime's 
energy policies.  A conservative would make sure s/he has all the bases 
covered; in particular a future in which it is no longer economically 
feasible for everyone to continue to use a 6000lb vehicle to drive a 1/2 
mile to the 7-11 for a bag of chips.  A conservative government would 
immediately implement an additional $1/gal gasoline tax and use the 
revenues to fund the development of renewable energy sources and the 
deployment of effective mass transit systems in communites like ours 
which need them.  An added benefit of a gas tax is that it would 
encourage people to start conserving now, the net effect of which would 
be keeping the money right here in the US instead of sending it to Arab 
countries dreaming of our demise.  As Thomas Friedman of the New York 
Times observed, Bush's energy policy might better be called "No Mullah 
Left Behind", since instead of imposing a gas tax which would encourage 
consumers to drive less, we're simply letting the price of gas drift up 
anyway so that all the money flows to the countries supporting Islamic 
terrorism instead.

For anyone who is skeptical about the idea that gas prices are going to 
continue to go up, by the way, let me reiterate Roger's plug and 
strongly recommend the documentary "The END of SUBURBIA: Oil Depletion 
and the Collapse of The American Dream" available from 
http://endofsuburbia.com/.  Experts agree:  we have a problem, and 
almost everyone appears to be in a state of denial about it.