BIKE: Oil prices, toll roads & commuter rail in Mudville

[Lane S. Wimberley]

Mike Dahmus writes:
> David Dobbs wrote:
> 
> > At 11:25 -0500 10/7/04, Mike Dahmus wrote:
> >
> >     1. There STILL is no oil production crisis.
> >
> >
> > On the contrary, there is a crisis [...]
> >
> > Now you choose any word you like, but in reality the world is addicted 
> > to a substance in very short supply from which there is no quick and 
> > easy withdrawal without enormous pain for everyone. Is this a crisis 
> > and if it is, when should we acknowledge it?
> 
> 
> Clearly oil is getting more expensive, but adjusted for inflation we 
> have a long ways to go to even reach the oil shocks of the 1970s. When 
> Roger throws around the words "crisis", the assumption is that we'll be 
> at LEAST that badly off.
> 
> In today's dollars, that's about 80 bucks a barrel.
> 
> Like I say: not there yet.
> 
> This doesn't mean you shouldn't build anticipating expensive oil. You 
> should. But it also doesn't mean that it's time to Chicken Little this 
> thing to death; because all that you do is look like an idiot among the 
> people who were possible to sway.

All depends on how you define crisis, I suppose.  In my view, not all
crises require sudden, catestrophic failure.  Environmental crises can
happen on a generational time scale, and people don't even recognize
the crisis until they begin to analyze how the lives and environment
of previous generations differ from their own.

Regarding oil, I think we're looking down the barrels (no pun
intended) of several crises.  First, the current escalation of oil
prices is very likely to have a negative economic impact over the next
year.  Crisis?  Hard to say, but likely not pretty.

Politically, the situation in the Middle East, which I view as being
largely a result of the west's addiction to oil, might reasonably be
judged to be at crisis stage. 

The environmental crisis continues to unfold.  Ironically, finding and
pumping more oil, bringing oil prices down, is probably the worst
thing that could happen from an environmental perspective.

But, perhaps the REAL crisis is that, while one might argue that our
oil-related problems are currently far from crisis stage, and even not
likely to get close for some five or ten (or even twenty) years, if
nothing is done to break our addiction to oil, we damn-sure will have
a crisis on our hands when the inevitable peak finally does arrive.
And, it seems to me, the window of opportunity for crisis-averting
change is fast closing (if it hasn't already).  And, THAT, in my
opinion, is a crisis worthy of some immediate attention.

Is this list the place to discuss it?  I don't know.  But, in a vain
attempt to lessen my guilt, ...

Who do I need to talk to to get vegetation cut back from the bike
lanes on Woodward (west-bound, just west of I-35)?  It's getting kind
of nasty, not to mention kinda dangerous.

-Lane

_______________________________________________________________________
Lane Wimberley, Wayport, Inc.,  512.519.6195 (voice)  512.519.6200 (fax)
Southpark Commerce Center II, 4509 Freidrich Lane, Austin, TX 78744