BIKE: How oil affects gasoline prices

[Patrick Goetz]

Like many of us - including me, Mike is feeling a little testy and 
besieged because of the incredibly stupid direction our local leaders 
are currently  taking us (so we should forgive a little harsh language). 
  I was just in Europe for a couple of weeks and the trip was mostly 
ruined by the fact that I couldn't stop obssessing about the impending 
apocalypse our federal, state, and local leaders are willfully dragging 
us towards, the details of which are actually much clearer when one is 
far away, hanging out in a more sustainable culture with well 
established mass transit systems.  Spending time in cities with 
extensive and well-established tram and metro lines, by the way, drove 
home *conclusively* the absolute folly of both commuter and at-grade 
light rail systems for Austin, but more on this later.  Those of you 
telling lies and using Ends justifies the Means arguments to make a case 
for the proposed commuter rail line are absolutely no better, in many 
ways far worse, than the most dedicated road warriors.  Meanwhile, 
although I agree with Mike in principle, here are a couple of serious 
points of disagreement.

Mike Dahmus wrote:
> 
> 1. There STILL is no oil production crisis. <snip>

This depends on how one defines crisis.  Right now, oil is being pumped 
out of the ground at maximum or near maximum capacity and is still just 
barely meeting world demand.  This means that any disruption in the 
supply of oil could be catastrophic, particularly for us, as our use of 
oil is largely inelastic.  In particular, a disruption in supply would 
mean dramatically higher prices, consequently an even weaker dollar 
leading to economic instability, massive layoffs, and so on.  Since the 
US is the world's largest economy, we would probably drag the rest of 
the world down with us into chaos and an economic depression which would 
make what happened in the 1930's look like a tea party.  From this 
perspective (instability), there most certainly is an oil USAGE crisis: 
  production levels are fine, too high even; the problem is we're USING 
too much oil.

> 
> 2. I supported the toll roads because I'm not a complete moron like 
> yourself who thinks that the other alternative was "no roads". The 
> choice in the REAL world was between toll roads and more free roads IN 
> THE SAME PLACES. NONE of these toll roads weren't ALREADY in the CAMPO 
> plan. The ONLY DIFFERENCE is that suburbanites will have to pay direct 
> user fees <snip>
> 

The real issue is how the tolls will be used, not whether they 
constitute a fair use payment.  What the CTRMA intends to do is borrow 
enormous amounts of money using future toll revenues as collateral in 
order to build unwanted and largely unneeded roads as quickly as 
possible.  This is nothing more than a cash grab to benefit the highway 
lobby and suburban real estate speculators.  Then, when and if the 
projected toll revenues don't materialize (a very likely scenario, given 
the steadily increasing price of oil), they will simply default on the 
bonds, leaving taxpayers holding the bag.  The highway builders and real 
estate speculators walk away with billions (minus what the politicians 
managed to pocket) leaving us to pay the bills and enjoy a considerably 
compromised environment and even more crappy, unsustainable land use. 
It is for this reason that the toll road plan must be opposed WITHOUT 
PULLING ANY PUNCHES.  Yes, toll road supporters on the CAMPO board need 
to be recalled, voted out of office, and harrassed mercilessly, if 
necessary, to put an end to the current toll road plan.  I don't think 
I've ever seen greater consenus in Austin on any other issue (i.e. 
opposition to toll roads), and yet this piece of sh*t is still in place. 
  We're the Czech Republic in 1969 realizing that "hey, I guess we're 
NOT a democracy after all" as the road building equipment (as opposed to 
Russian tanks) come rolling into town.


> 3. I HEARTILY SUPPORT passenger rail.   <snip>

I can vouch for this, and further Mike has up until now been one of the 
strongest critics of monorail and a supporter of at-grade light rail. 
The commuter rail proposal is a road warrior's wet dream, big oil's 
favorite public works project, and a suburban Republican SUV driver's 
pet patootie.  Here is series of questions offered by Skip Cameron which 
have gone completely unanswered by Cap Metro, reprinted without 
permission (but I don't think he'll mind).  If you still support the 
commuter rail proposal after reading these questions, please sign up for 
a reverse lobotomy procedure at the new Dahmus Do-It-Yourself Surgical 
Center before getting behind the wheel again.


Skip Cameron
Austin Great Hills HOA
------------------------------
Questions needing answers from Cap Metro:

1. How many people are projected to ride, what will the fare be for
Commuter Rail (CR), and how much will ot cost for each passenger boarding,
considering operating costs plus amortized total capital coats in year 1,
5, 10 and 15?

2. Since FTA recently tightened its New Start Rules for federal matching
funds, requiring applicants to prove their solution is better than
alternatives, and since the existing bus from Leander is both faster and
less costly, why will FTA ever grant matching $$ for our Commuter Rail?

3. Why are you touting hike and bike along the rail line when it is not
part of the CR implementation plan nor is it funded on your proposal?

4. Please explain how Commuter Rail, crossing most of our major streets,
69 times on its route, stopping traffic at rush hour 1-2 minutes at each
crossing, will not increase rather than decrease congestion?

5. How are you going to deal with the fact that this proposed rail line
crossed the heavily used Union Pacific freight line, which means that
Commuter Rail may have to wait for a long freight train to pass?

6. Please explain your turnabout from your high paid consultants
recommendations in 1998-99 that this Leander to Austin rail like was
not a feasible alternative.

7. Please explain why your first year ridership projections of only
1550 Commuter Rail are as high as Seattle's similar line after 4 years
of operation and the fact that Seattle has 2-3 times the population
density and much higher freeway corridor congestion than our 183/I-35?
8. Using Seattle as an example - its bus has a lower fare, is faster,
and provides better destination stops, so it  has many more people riding
bus on the same corridor than ride the rail after 4 years of side by
side operation. Why would Austin be any better and why should we even
think of using Commuter Rail given these facts?

9. Why hasn't Cap Metro done market surveys  asking residents of Leander
or Cedar Park or Austin along the rail corridor to determine how many
people now ride the existing bus, how many would convert to the new rail,
and how many new riders you would gain with rail?

10. When 183A is completed, won't it provide for even faster bus service
to downtown Austin at less cost than rail, plus deliver passengers to
their destination rather than a one hour rail trip which leaves them at
the Convention Center, needing a transfer to get to their destination?

11. Why will Cap Metro not accept minimum accountability standards
for Commuter Rail upon which to base rational decisions to kill it or
expanding it?

12. The Arizona Transportation Research center has reported that it
costs 6 cents to move one person one mile on a freeway, $1.59 on a bus
and $2.75 on light rail. Cap Metro ought to know our numbers. What are
these same numbers for our freeway, bus and Commuter Rail; and then
explain once again why we should vote for Commuter Rail?

13. If commuter rail is the most expensive solution in austin's history
on a cost per rider boarding, why do you call it THE FIRST STEP IN A
REGIONAL PLAN?