BIKE: How oil affects gasoline prices; CATCO "public" input and the CATCO lobby

[Roger Baker]

On Oct 7, 2004, at 7:55 AM, Mike Dahmus wrote:

> On the bright side, widening 2222 in this corridor could end up 
> getting shoulders on Tumbleweed Hill. That would be something good to 
> fight for in this process. (On the flip side, the danger is that t2222 
> will be "widened" by taking away existing shoulders on the downhill 
> side of the hill).
>
> - MD


You could probably make a case for this enormously expensive project if 
we were not already facing a severe energy crisis and huge and growing 
budget deficits for roads that is sucking up all the money needed to 
make a realistic shift to bikes and transit.

We have an energy addictive sprawl syndrome that is causing severe 
congestion due to land use planning designed to favor real estate and 
road construction interests. The road lobby in Texas is completely out 
of control, and under Bush and Perry the once-good parts of federal 
transportation law are being flagrantly ignored.

The problem with this specific project is that this large shift in 
federal money from central Austin STP 4C projects (it could as well be 
used for bikes) to benefit 3M and Riverplace by widening 2222 is a 
suburban sprawl subsidy based on the same sleazy politics that is 
giving us toll roads.

The road lobby already got all the billions in toll roads they wanted 
approved, but that only whetted their appetite so now they're coming 
after central city transportation money too.

Mike Dahmus denied the oil production crisis a few years ago when I was 
warning about it, more recently supported the toll roads, and now 
opposes the passenger rail start, so I'll leave to your imagination my 
regard for his opinion in such matters.

-- Roger

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[When will soaring oil prices go down again?? The short answer is never 
ever, at least in terms of US hourly wages! The long “Oil and Gas 
Journal” article below all but says that world oil production is 
peaking. The tip off is when they more or less admit below that despite 
soaring prices the companies and producers are smart enough to know 
that it doesn’t pay to keep drilling and exploring anymore because all 
the big deposits of cheap oil have already been found long ago. The 
following snip is an excerpt from the long article below that is too 
long to post, so I'm posting the first part.  -- Roger]

“...Oil prices are not expected to fall substantially or oil demand to 
slacken within the next 12-18 months, WMRC emphasized. Through February 
2005, the market will be "extremely tight." However, the global economy 
can cope in the short term, the analysts said.

"Prices are in fact not that high in real terms, and this means that 
there is still another $20-30/bbl that could be added on to oil prices 
before prices reach levels commensurate with those in 1980-
81," WMRC said...”


                ********************************

Oil supply seen threatened by limited E&P opportunity, low investment

By OGJ editors

HOUSTON, Oct. 6 -- Strong oil demand growth, high oil prices, and 
dwindling spare production capacity are making the oil industry, its 
customers, and financiers question the source of tomorrow's oil, 
reported World Markets Research Centre in a September report. WMRC is 
part of the London-based Global Insight group of companies.

"The oil industry will face the challenge of adding 18 million b/d of 
new production by 2020 if demand rises at 1.8%[/year]. . .[but] low IOC 
[international oil company] exploration investment and lack of
new discoveries raise questions over long-term production," WMRC said. 
The analysts said IOC exploration investment "is not tracking prices as 
it has done in the past," primarily because of a lack of
confidence in long-term oil prices and limited opportunity.

The global oil supply-demand balance will continue to be tight through 
first half 2005, said WMRC, as demand growth in 2004 is "virtually 
unprecedented," while spare capacity has fallen substantially and will 
present a challenge to restore.

"Over the next 5 years there should be enough major development 
projects coming on stream to satisfy demand growth," the analysts said. 
"However, delays could add to market tightness."

Demand-supply surprises

Unprecedented economic and oil demand growth in China surprised many 
observers in 2004, while political instability disrupted production in 
Iraq and Nigeria and created worries about supply from Russia,
Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia.

"There has been a pincer attack on oil prices from both the supply and 
demand sides that has resulted in an inexorable climb in prices over 
the course of the year," WMRC noted.

Futures prices for crude oil began breaking records on the New York 
Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in August. Late that month the futures 
price for NYMEX crude was $38.30/bbl, and by early October it had
rocketed to $50/bbl.

In early 2004, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
underestimated global demand growth, which would become the highest it 
had been for more than 20 years, WMRC said. Fearing a price collapse in 
late 2003, OPEC cut production and resisted increases well into second 
quarter 2004 despite calls by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to 
increase production. IEA was revising Chinese demand growth upward each 
month "by hundreds of thousands of barrels."...